Data room · How Downside, Base & Upside are built as lever changes

3 scenarios. Same v2.1 model. Different P/E anchors.

The P&L is fixed (Financial Model v2.1; Y1 = FY2028, Y5 = FY2032). Only the ACE multiple on Y5 core PAT RM 2.98m moves. The same three scenarios run live in the ACE Math calculator on the Sophisticated brief.

Downside10× · RM 30m mcap Base13.4× · RM 40m mcap Upside20× · RM 60m mcap

Start here — the pitch anchor

Base is the v2.1 model as-is + an ACE listing at 13.4×.

RM 40m mcap = 13.4× on Y5 core PAT RM 2.98m at the Transfer of Listing to ACE (Y5, FY2032) — below Genting Malaysia's 14× LTM (GENM) and the listed FEC peer-set first quartile of 15.8× (Songcheng 19.5×, Round One 18.8×, United Parks 12.9×); same methodology as the TCC Capital independent valuation (Sep 2026). Base is the v2.1 model at defaults; the other two scenarios move one lever — the multiple.

Base

13.4× · RM 40m mcap

The reference scenario — Rawang + events + royalty + ACE-funded Sites 4–6, listed at a multiple priced below the Genting floor. The number PlayTown is fundraising against.

Lever recipe — everything held at v2 defaults

Same

Operating baseline — Y1 gross RM 1.58m → RM 10.73m by Y7 across four engines, with novelty decayFinancial Model v2.1 (Oct 2026)

Same

Events revenue trajectory — Y2 RM 0.91m growing to RM 3.51m by Y7 at 40% EBITDA marginMetahub proven: events.metahub.my runs Malaysia SME Cup + DREAMS FH Cup today

Same

Multi-site royalty stream — 5% of licensed site gross revenue, third-party capex, 30 sites at maturity Y10–Y12v2 default assumption preserved

Same

Sites 4–6 opening schedule — 1 major (Rawang-equivalent Site 4, RM 7m) opening Y6 + 2 satellites (~RM 1.5m each) Y7–Y8, funded by the RM 10m ACE raiseSee Capital Roadmap, Sophisticated brief

Same

RPS RM 1m @ 8% cumulative coupon Y2–Y6, par redemption end-Y6 — separate instrument, off the equity tableRanks ahead of OS dividends; subject to Board declaration and distributable reserves (CA 2016 S.131)

Equity · Exit at ACE Y5FY2032

~25%

3.0× MOIC over 5 years

RM 6m external equity → 60% at close → 45% after the 25% ACE float. 45% × RM 40m mcap = RM 18m returned on RM 6m.

ExitY5 ACE listing · 13.4× · RM 10m raised

Equity · Hold to Y7FY2034

~32%

7.24× MOIC over 7 years · at RM 6m target raise

Distributable cash Y1–Y7 (RM 18.78m company-level, ~RM 9.7m pro-rata to the RM 6m line) + Y7 equity at the same 13.4× on PAT RM 5.60m (RM 75m × 45% = RM 33.8m) = ~RM 43.45m → 7.24× at the RM 6m target; 6.59× at the RM 7m max (47.7% × RM 75m + RM 10.3m dividends = RM 46.1m) — the extra RM 1m OS issued at max adds 1M shares to the cap table, slightly diluting each investor’s % of the company (Y7 MCAP is fixed by PAT × P/E, not raise size). No P/E re-rate — the uplift is 7 years of dividends plus higher Y7 PAT.

HoldPost-listing · dividends + terminal equity

RPS holderFixed

~6.5%

~1.4× expected MOIC (tentative) · principal end-Y6

RM 1m principal · RM 80k/yr cumulative coupon Y2–Y6 · par redemption end-Y6. Identical in all three scenarios by construction. Coupon and redemption subject to Board declaration and distributable reserves under Companies Act 2016 S.131; not guaranteed.

Upside — in-band pricing

Upside is Base + a better P/E anchor.

20× — the upper end of the ACE growth band. Same P&L, same Y5 PAT; the better anchor comes from pre-ACE demand booking well or the funded Sites 4–6 pipeline priced in on Day 1.

Upside

20× · RM 60m mcap

The post-listing target. Sponsors typically price below the upper band on listing day to leave headroom — treat this as an early-trading arrival, not a launch-day print.

Deltas from Base — one lever moves

Change

P/E anchor: 13.4× → 20× — top of the ACE 15–25× bandDriver: pre-ACE demand books well + funded Sites 4–6 story credible on Day 1 · see IPO Valuation Basis sensitivity grid

Same

Y5 core PAT RM 2.98m — the operating baseline is untouchedRM 2.98m × 20× = RM 60m mcap

Same

Sites 4–6 timeline unchanged — Site 4 Y6, satellites Y7–Y8, funded by the larger RM 15m ACE raise (25% × RM 60m)Same build plan, more listing proceeds

Same

RPS unchanged — terms and qualifiers as in the Base RPS cardScenario-independent by construction

Equity · Exit at ACE Y5FY2032

~35%

4.5× MOIC over 5 years

45% post-float × RM 60m mcap = RM 27m returned on RM 6m external equity.

ExitY5 ACE listing · 20× · RM 15m raised

Equity · Hold to Y7FY2034

~39%

~10.0× MOIC over 7 years

~RM 9.7m distributable cash Y1–Y7 + Y7 equity at the same 20× on PAT RM 5.60m (RM 112m × 45% = RM 50.4m) = ~RM 60m → ~10× on RM 6m.

NoteRealistic arrival: Day-1 + early trading, not launch-day pricing

Downside — the priced-below-floor case

Downside is the same business — the market just doesn't pay for it.

The listing lands, but the market dismisses the four-engine PAT or won't credit the funded Sites 4–6 pipeline: 10× — below Genting Malaysia's 14× LTM floor. Not the disaster case — execution is real, equity is liquid. Entry at RM 4m pre-money is the protection: even a below-band print returns a multiple.

Downside

10× · RM 30m mcap

The floor of the listed outcomes. Above cost, liquid via ACE. (The unlisted floor — no listing at all — is a private dividend hold against the v2.1 12-year distributable stream of RM 34.6m without Sites 4–6, ≈3.5× on the RM 6m line by Y12; see the Sophisticated brief, Thesis Q5.)

Deltas from Base — one lever moves

Change

P/E anchor: 13.4× → 10× — the dead band below the Genting 14× LTM floorDriver: muted growth-story reception or sponsor pricing dead-zones a soft launch · RM 2.98m × 10× ≈ RM 30m mcap

Same

Y5 core PAT RM 2.98m holds — this is a pricing failure, not an operating failureRawang + events + royalty all deliver the v2 baseline; the market declines to pay for it

Same

Distributable cash build-up unchanged — RM 4.7m end-Y4, RM 8.4m end-Y5 vs the RM 7m raiseCompany-level cash available for distribution, not amounts committed or paid to investors — from operating cash, unaffected by the multiple

Same

RPS unchanged — ranks ahead of OS dividends; terms and qualifiers as in the Base RPS cardScenario-independent by construction

Equity · Exit at ACE Y5FY2032

~17%

2.25× MOIC over 5 years

45% post-float × RM 30m mcap = RM 13.5m returned on RM 6m external equity. Above cost, liquid via ACE.

ExitY5 ACE listing · 10× · RM 7.5m raised

Equity · Hold to Y7FY2034

~29%

~5.8× MOIC over 7 years

~RM 9.7m distributable cash Y1–Y7 + Y7 equity at the same 10× on PAT RM 5.60m (RM 56m × 45% = RM 25.2m) = ~RM 35m → ~5.8× on RM 6m. The dividend stream carries most of the return.

Frame"Market didn't reward the story, but the business worked"

Side-by-side · the full matrix

All three scenarios, one view.

Rows the multiple can't touch — PAT, float, distributable cash build-up, RPS — are identical across all three columns by construction.

Attribute	Downside	Base	Upside
ACE Y5 market cap	RM 30m	RM 40m	RM 60m
Y5 core PAT	RM 2.98m	RM 2.98m	RM 2.98m
Trailing P/E at listing	10×	13.4×	20×
Position vs ACE 15–25× band	Below band — dead zone under sponsor pricing	Below Genting Malaysia 14× LTM and FEC peer-set Q1 15.8× — deliberately safe	Top of band — in-band pricing
New float at ACE	25%	25%	25%
RM raised at ACE (25% × mcap)	RM 7.5m	RM 10m	RM 15m
Y7 terminal mcap at same P/E Y7 consolidated PAT RM 5.60m × scenario P/E	RM 56m	RM 75m	RM 112m
Cumulative Y1–Y7 distributable cash (pro-rata to the RM 6m external line) 60% pre-ACE Y1–Y5 + 45% post-ACE Y6–Y7	~RM 9.7m	~RM 9.7m	~RM 9.7m
Equity MOIC / IRR · exit at ACE Y5	2.25×~17% IRR · RM 13.5m on RM 6m	3.0×~25% IRR · RM 18m on RM 6m	4.5×~35% IRR · RM 27m on RM 6m
Equity MOIC / IRR · hold to Y7 Distributions Y1-Y7 + terminal equity at same P/E	~5.8×~29% IRR · dividends carry it	7.24×~32% IRR at RM 6m target · 6.59× / ~31% if max RM 7m raise closes (extra RM 1m OS dilutes per-RM returns) · same 13.4× P/E	~10.0×~39% IRR · same 20× P/E
Distributable cash build-up ≥ RM 7m raise (Company-level, not committed to investors)	Y4–Y5	Y4–Y5	Y4–Y5
RPS return (separate instrument)	unchanged	expected ~1.4× · ~6.5% IRR (tentative)	unchanged

Demand-side anchor — the capture rate every scenario shares

Every scenario shares one demand baseline: 130,000 families within 30 min (~600k people, DOSM Census 2020) × 20% capture = 26,000 families × 2.0 visits × 3.2 headcount = 166,000 person-visits × RM 40 ARPU (RM 29 + RM 7 + RM 4) ≈ RM 6.7m Rawang venue revenue at Y7 (Facility RM 4.9m + Other RM 1.77m) — ~19% of primary SOM (~RM 35m), ~7% of combined (~RM 95m). The capture rate never moves; only the multiple does.

Destination-park benchmark	Catchment	Visits / yr	Capture
Sunway Lagoon	KL metro ~8M	~2M	~25%
Lost World of Tambun	Ipoh + surrounds ~1.5M	~1M	~65%
Legoland Malaysia	JB · SG · S. Msia ~5–7M	~1.5–2M	~25–30%
Berjaya Times Square TP	KL metro ~8M	~1.5M	~20%
PlayTown Y7 (all scenarios)	~600k primary + 3M accessible	166k · RM 6.7m	~19% primary · ~7% combined

ARPU = Average Revenue Per User; ~20% family capture ≈ ~19% of primary SOM in ringgit (different bases). SOM, catchment and ARPU are Issuer-derived on DOSM public data, not independently verified. Benchmarks are Issuer-compiled approximations (reported visitors ÷ DOSM catchments; pre-pandemic baselines where available; definitions vary by operator) — directional only.

The reading order of the three scenarios

Downside is the floor of the listed outcomes — 10×, yet equity still returns 2.25× with ACE liquidity, and the distributable cash build-up still passes the RM 7m raise in Y4–Y5 because it never depended on the multiple.

Base is the pitch anchor — 13.4× on Y5 core PAT RM 2.98m: 3.0× at the listing or 7.24× on hold-to-Y7 at the RM 6m target; no P/E re-rate. At max raise (RM 7m OS), 11M total shares post-money vs 10M at target → external 63.6% pre-ACE (vs 60% at target), but per-RM MOIC drops to 6.59× because the fixed Y7 MCAP (RM 75m at 13.4× P/E on PAT RM 5.60m) divides across more shares. The fundraise is priced against this.

Upside is the post-listing target — 20× if demand and the Sites 4–6 story book well; sponsors usually leave that room for post-listing trading. Treat 4.5× as an early-trading arrival.

The RPS is a separate track — identical in all three scenarios; terms and qualifiers in the Base RPS card.

Entry at RM 10m post-money is the protection across all three. Every scenario is auditable: v2.1 model → move the P/E lever → × 45% post-float external stake → the MOIC/IRR in the ACE Math calculator. No black-box math.